Fast Facts: Ambulance responses to binge drinking in Tower Hamlets

The first in a series of shorter posts looking at specific bits of data. Today's data is a look at ambulance callouts for the London Ambulance service 2009-2013.

Chart 1: Looking a the number of ambulance callouts over the period, we can see graphically a broad increase of around 30 incidents a month over the period. However, the data fluctuates quite a bit month on month. R2 on this is 0.26, which gives R, the correlation co-efficient as being 0.5. Given the number of observations, this means that theres is a less than 5% likelihood that the observation that binge drinking callouts increase with time is random.


Chart 2: If we apply a seasonal adjustment factor based on which month of the year a data point occurs in, to control for differences in drinking at different times of the year (people might disproprtionately drink in say December or summer months) the R2  increases to 0.4, and an R of 0.63. The application of the adjustment, removes some of the month-on-month fluctuation in the data and shows more clearly the increase.


Conclusion

Binge drinking related ambulance callouts are on the increase in LBTH. However, we can't say with any certainty if this reflects a growth in population, an increase in binge drinking or an increase in how likely someone is to call for an ambulance for themselves, a friend or someone comatose in the street.

Looking out my backdoor - a week in photos

Photos and video from the past week and long weekend set to music courtesy of the Incredible HLK, amateur ukulele man.

Swifts on Hermitage Basin

Armed only with the world's slowest compact camera, @potoft and I wandered past Hermitage basin and spotted a flock of swifts circling low over the basin. Flying so low it was difficult to focus and photograph them in a way to make them stand out from the cluttered background of the houses. Instead I tried to shoot one when it broke off from the frenzied mass and managed to get one in silhouette.
 



 
 

Return to Rotherhithe

This morning, as I baked my pain au chocolat, I looked out of the window to see if there was any activity on the bird feeder - none at all, though perhaps because some fat little furball has been scoffing everything. What I did get to see however was a bizarre Mexican standoff between our neighbour's cat and a cat I haven't seen before. It went on for several minutes, such that even after the pain au chocolat came out of the oven and I had made two lattes they were still in exactly the same position. I did wonder if it was a prank involving taxidermied cats, but they showed just about enough sign of life to allay my fears.
 
 
 
We popped on the overground one stop to Rotherhithe, and on getting to the midpoint of the tunnel @potoft decided that it was an appropriate point to try rejigging her sock. After a brief scramble to refit her shoe, we emerged into the sun at Rotherhithe. Walking towards the river, we popped into the Brunel Museum, which I must say is one of the most disappointing museums I've visited (I've been to a pencil museum, I know what I'm talking about). For £3 you get to look around a gallery space the size of my lounge with some boards on the Thames Tunnel. Downstairs we watched a video on the life of IK Brunel which had the same background music to every schools programme I watched as a child. Unfortunately the video didn't really say much about the Thames Tunnel, or even explain the respective involvement of Marc and Isambard, or on some occasions which Brunel they were talking about (not helped by the fact it didn't treat matters chronologically).
 
On some dates you can visit the original shaft, but this didn't seem to be an option today. I think getting to look in the shaft would make admission worthwhile, but I didn't really learn anything, however, it is something ticked off the bucket list. 
 
The one highlight were the card diaroma/stereoscopic viewers, one of which is artistically reproduced below.
 

The highlight really was a model of the Prince Albert rail bridge over the Tamar incorporated into a bench, and to see this you don't even need to pay admission.



Next we pottered over to the Mayflower pub and had two halves of 'Noble's craft lager'. As someone who isn't that keen on lager, whenever I see an independent brewery's lager, I will try it (Korev by St Austell being an excellent example). It was quite enjoyable, with a tang reminiscent of some Belgian beers. Researching it when I returned home, I discovered it is actually a Greene King (though there's no evidence of this on the pump clip) - probably the best Greene King beer I've tried. Though for context, my opinion of Greene King is such that if I had known it was a Greene King beer I wouldn't have tried it, so clearly some marketing guru has some nouse.

The area around the Mayflower is very much like Wapping with some remaining warehouses, and the Mayflower is a particularly charming pub, which I intend to return to for the opportunity of having an 11 cheese English cheeseboard.

 
Sitting on the decking at the back of the Mayflower, we could sit and see the historic warehouses of Wapping that you don't normally get to see and the multitude of boats going up and down the river.






Having drunk up, we followed the Thames Path East and came across this rather delightful bronze of one of the Pilgrim Fathers and a modern child (and status dog!). Any visitor from the New World can guarantee good luck by putting a token in the Pilgrim's pocket.


Walking down to Surrey Water we had the treat of spotting some coots, and more importantly, some cootlings. One moorhen discovered how protective of their nests coots can be, as it was chased round and round a floating platform, before escaping to the safety of a fence. There were two nests, one still under construction, and it was nice to see the two prospective parents working together to build a nest, with the father fetching reeds and bits of straw and the mother arranging them into a nest.





The nest with the cootlings was a much more well proportioned affair and was almost entirely made out of natural materials and the youngsters seemed to be having fun in the water.
















Dragging ourselves away, we walked up to Stave Hill and enjoyed the view from the top before walking on through Russia Dock Woodland where we spotted at least two herons.



Arriving at Greenland dock, where organic matter is in much shorter supply, we found one coot had built a nest of a much more impressive scale, but largely expanded by the use of plastic bags.

Also in the dock was what I think is a Great Crested Grebe, and in the bright sunlight we were able to watch diving through the water.


Robbery at the Prospect of Whitby, 1953 part 2


In part 1, we left the diners of the Prospect of Whitby on that Foggy January night in 1953 having just had their valuables taken (including umbrella you will recall) by three masked men in raincoats standing over them. Would they escape? Would justice prevail?

As the three masked robbers stood there, with cash and jewellery worth around £3,500 (around £80,000 in 2011 prices), one of the robbers made a fundamental error of judgement. He removed his mask. The game had now changed. He could be identified. The gang had a choice. Would they run and take the chance that they could get far enough away to avoid identification, or would they need to be certain that there were no witnesses left.

It might at this point be informative to introduce one Robert Harrington Sanders, aged 29, who occasionally worked as an electrician. Sanders had served in the army during the war, as part of the Black Watch, but deserted during the invasion of Germany. Taking advantage of the situation, he was described at his subsequent court martial in June 1945 to have run riot. Whilst in Germany he committed two cases of robbery with aggravation, four cases of rape, and one of indecent assault. When he was caught and tried, he was sentenced to 15 years of penal servitude, but this was subsequently reduced to 7 years. Sanders escaped from prison and went on the run.

Sanders then went on another spree, and when again caught, a year later, he was sentenced to an additional 14 years for possessing a firearm with intent to endanger life and also given concurrent sentences of seven years, three years and one year for attempting to steal a motorcar, receiving a wireless set, and other offences.

On December 13, 1952, just a month before our diners found themselves lying on the floor, Sanders escaped from Wakefield Gaol and made his way to London. Sanders formed a band of six men, who became known as the "Red Scarf Gang", with Sanders pleased to describe himself as the leader.

It seems likely then, that those men in the pub that night were 'in' with Sanders, but I can tell you that Sanders was never arrested, charged or tried for the Prospect of Whitby Robbery.

Once the gang had finished robbing the pub and its customers, the three masked men and a lookout escaped in the Daimler, which was later found abandoned. The following Monday's Times included a brief report that the police were on the lookout for four criminals.

On January 26, two weeks after the robbery, Edward Penfold, aged 21, a labourer, of Whitworth House, Falmouth Road was visited at home and was told that he answered the description of the man who was not masked. At an identification parade he was picked out by Peter Brusey and his wife, and by Patrick Campbell. Cherry Campbell however, picked out another of the eight men who were on parade. Penfold denied any involvement and said that he was at the fair ground at Walworth Road on the night in question. Penfold on the basis of witness testimony was remanded in custody.

On the 16th of February Penfold was released without charge. For three weeks Penfold had been in police custody. He had appeared before the courts three times and had been identified by three eye witnesses. This change of events came about because of the actions of Edward Plumpton.

It was Plumpton that had been the unmasked man and he had come forward out of guilt that another man might go to prison in his place.

In discharging Penfold, the magistrate was rather philosophical:

"So far as this case is concerned you leave this court without a stain on your character. You have been the victim of extraordinary circumstances which were very unfortunate for you, but the police cannot be blamed, as they acted on the information given them."


The magistrates words suggest that he wasn't entirely convinced that Penfold was an angel, even if on this occasion, the accusation was unfair. Penfold was denied costs from the courts but was advised by the magistrate to approach 'the right authorities' for compensation.
Taking Penfold's place in the dock was the aforementioned Edward Plumpton, aged 27, a lorry driver, of Rill House, Harris Street, Camberwell, and Derek Donald Gould, aged 23, a street trader, of Brondesbury Road, Kilburn, charged with seven charges of robbery, armed with a revolver and truncheon.

The trial was started afresh with evidence given at previous hearings against Penfold was repeated.

When asked whether he wished to question Mr. Brusey, Plumpton said: "I admit I was the man without a mask."

It's not clear how Gould was identified but both plead guilty.

During interrogation Edward Plumpton stated:
"Two fellows approached me and asked me if I wanted to earn a few pounds. One of them said he had the needle with the governor a pub over the way and they were going to get their own back. Up to the time we got outside the Prospect of Whitby I did not realize anybody had a gun. I thought we were going to have a fight with a gang. I did not know it was to be a robbery."


Mr. A. E. Bolton, appearing for Gould, said that "the two men in the dock were merely the small fry in this affair".

And what of the other two?

Chief Inspector John Freshney, reported that the third man who carried the revolver (and hit Campbell) had been arrested on another charge. This man was Sanders, who had been arrested for attempted murder of a police man. The look-out was also apprehended and was being tried for another offence, but his identity wasn't reported in the press.

Inspector Freshney said Plumpton had no criminal record and was  a British Road Services driver with a decent home and two children. Plumpton had got into trouble at dog racing and took part in this robbery to get money for his wife. Gould in contrast had four previous convictions, one of which he committed with his father.

Mr. Peter Rawlinson, appearing for Plumpton, said that Plumpton thought he was merely going to a " pub brawl " and did not know that the others were armed. He went without a scarf and without taking any precautions against being identified, although witnesses stated there were three men in masks, implying that Sanders may have provided Plumpton with a mask when they committed the crime.

At sentencing, Gould received four-and-a-half years' imprisonment and Plumpton two- and-a-half years' imprisonment.

Passing sentence the Recorder (Sir Gerald Dodson) told Plumpton that he had done his best to ruin his life and to Gould the Recorder said: " You have sold yourself to the powers of darkness. You are far too sophisticated, far too tutored in the ways of wickedness for corrective training."

So, it all turned out ok, and everyone was brought to justice and no one was seriously injured.

Epilogue

Patrick and Cherry Campbell divorced. Patrick went on to gain fame as a panellist on Call My Bluff
Owen Cunningham married one of waitresses in the 1960s, a lady some thirty years his junior, and with whom he had six children. He was in talks to open a chain of Cunningham restaurants in the USA when he died in 1974.
Robert Harrington Sanders was convicted for attempted murder and sentenced to life.
Peter Brussey emigrated to Australia, developed a reputation as an excellent Barrister and eventually returned to the UK. A contemporary stated Brusey disliked confrontation and declined appointment as a judge as he could not contemplate sending someone to prison, perhaps an echo of his own misidentification of Penfold?


And as a parting gift, a recipe from Captain Cunningham.



 

Swanning about Wapping

In which your author pootles swans about Wapping
 
My bank holiday task list has been written and part of this was visiting KEMP to see their interpretation of Sauron's tower (more properly called Barad-dûr according to Wikipedia - where else other than this blog can you get graphs, photos and literary references?).
 
Talking to WiW and LoveWapping, who we encountered undertaking a photocall, I discovered there were some cygnets on Shadwell basin. I had a brief chat to WiW about the difficulties of bird photography and proving whether something is a juvenile/adult male/female raven/rook/crow; I suggested the use of those rulers they have on CSI for capturing scale. WiW said that taking photos of wild birds is harder than it seems but that LoveWapping used to take crime scene photos (rather than just wearing a paper romper suit for fun), so maybe he could supervise in future (I think that's what WiW meant, rather than having a collection of corvid cadavars).
 
We then discussed the merits of different camera lenses and whether using a fixed focal length (prime) lens instilled greater discipline (for some reason I rarely get invited to parties). For various technical reasons, it transpired that I had the camera/lens combination with the longest reach, and was tasked with taking some photos of the cygnets.
 
After a quick trip to Maplin by St Paul's Cathedral, to buy some heat shrink to finish the repair @potoft's Marshall headphones (the tight northerner in me not being prepared to not at least attempt a botch job), which I had soldered yesterday, and a spot of beer and a sausage at the Prospect, I collected my telephoto lens and headed to the basin.
 
On my initial approach the female swan and the cygnets were having a snooze on one of the pontoons used by the outdoor activity centre, and it didn't look like I was going to be getting a great shot in the immediate future. A quick stroll round KEMP (at which point I discovered drinking beer and then leaving the pub without a pre-emptive wee makes for a full bladder), and we discovered that some people love wildlife so much they appear to dress up as it (though not to the extent as a previous inhabitant of a house I lived in at university who took the fur thing to a completely different level courtesy of the affections afforded by a large plush wolf).
 
We again walked past LoveWapping and WiW and I then realised, that despite the fact the sun was out, and the park was filling up with sunbathers, both LoveWapping and WiW were dressed for Winter. This clearly is where my blog writing falters. Whereas I was pootling around in just jeans and a 'campaign for surreal ale' t-shirt, the professionals were both wearing coats. Clearly this novice has much to learn.
 
Fortunately on the return leg the cygnets were out and paddling on the basin and I managed to get some nice shots, of some incredibly cute cygnets. Unfortunately for bystanders, this photoshoot was accompanied by my rendition of 'there once was an ugly duckling' in the key of 'off'.
 
Oh and if you haven't had enough of cute, I spotted one of my resident squirrels, which I think may be pregnant given her recent increase in size (or may be due to the fact she empties the bird feeder of seeds in about 30 minutes).
 
If you click on the photos you should be able to cycle through in higher resolution.
 


 


 
 





















 

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