Different data are available on different geographic bases. This afternoon in addition to Boroughs, Wards and Post Codes, I found data on polling districts (which houses vote at which polling stations) and the slightly more exotic LSOA and MSOA (Lower and Middle Layer Super Output Areas respectively). I'll be looking at data at this level in another post.
Boroughs, Wards (and if you care for them LAPs) are based on political boundaries.
Wapping sits in the ward of St Katharine and Wapping in the London Borough of Tower Hamlets (LBTH), and at a sub-ward level there are 4 polling districts labelled SK1-SK4. When you get a polling card, your number will start with your polling district.
My first interest was in population growth in Wapping relative to other areas of London and Lower Hamlets. In my googling, I found an interesting spreadsheet on the Local Government Boundary Commission for England(LGBCE) website that gives population changes by polling district (I assume these are registered voters, but I assume that I can take this as a proxy for population). Excellent I thought, until I realised I didn't know what the boundaries were. An hour of googling, plus my first ever FOI request to LBTH found nothing. Going back to the LGBCE website I discovered a map which had them on, just not labelled in text, so not picked up. The moral of this story is clearly to look before you leap. However, hopefully LBTH will provide a slightly larger scale map linked to roads.
Using my limited photoshop skills, I've super imposed the LGBCE map onto an opensource map to try and understand it. The overlay is slightly wobbly, but so is life.
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| Map of polling districts |
To summarise the four areas can be considered thus:
- SK1 - North of the Highway, from Royal Mint to Cannon Street Road.
- SK2 - Wapping Lane, east to Garnet Street, excluding the north of Shadwell basin, but including Benson Quay, Riverside Mansions, the Wapping Project and the Prospect of Whitby
- SK3 - Wapping Lane, west to the middle of Pier Head, then following Vaughan Way
- SK4 - Vaughan Way westwards, to the Tower and Tower Hill
| Polling District | 2012 | 2018 | Change | Period growth | CAGR |
| SH1 | 3,162 | 3,162 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| SH2 | 1,092 | 1,162 | 70 | 6.4% | 0.9% |
| SH3 | 2,035 | 2,061 | 26 | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| SH4 | 1,574 | 1,861 | 287 | 18.2% | 2.4% |
| SH5 | 1,123 | 1,123 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| SH6 | 1,074 | 1,074 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Shadwell | 10,060 | 10,443 | 383 | 3.8% | 0.6% |
| SK1 | 2,103 | 2,896 | 793 | 37.7% | 4.7% |
| SK2 | 2,339 | 2,771 | 432 | 18.5% | 2.5% |
| SK3 | 3,154 | 3,185 | 31 | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| SK4 | 1,732 | 1,732 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wapping | 9,328 | 10,584 | 1,256 | 13.5% | 2.1% |
CAGR is Compound Annual Growth Rate, a constant annual percentage growth rate per year.
So, whilst 'Shadwell' is expected to grow by 3.8% over the period, 'Wapping' will increase by 13.5% by 2018 (assuming LBTH are correct - I don't know if they are renowned statistical forecasters). What is particularly interesting is that the majority of this growth is actually generated by SK1, which as we know is, the 'bad north' of political Wapping, which is forecase to see a massive 37.7 per cent increase, which I assume relates to the development on the St George's estate (situated between Cable Street and The Highway, West of Cannon Street Road).
The residual population growth is expected in SK2, which is Wapping Lane, East towards Shadwell basin and I can only assume this is due to the development of 21 Wapping Lane, which will ultimately include 450 flats of between zero and 3 bedrooms, however this looks like the assumption is that adult population won't increase by as much as the total number of flats (assuming that all are sold by 2018...) indicating expectations that either residents aren't registered voters, or that they are empty investment properties.
The equivalent figures for all LBTH, showing even greater growth are:
| Polling District | 2012 | 2018 | Change | Period growth | CAGR |
| LBTH | 171,598 | 198,777 | 27,179 | 15.8% | 2.5% |
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