How dense?

James Murdoch's office

Not actually a post about my intellect or lack thereof, but on the density of residents in the area (yes I've chosen to write a blog on more demographic guff).

The map below plots the population density of Wapping and surrounding areas, and takes in all parts of Wapping and a few neighbouring LSOAs (Lower Layer Super Output Area - how the Office for National Statistics breaks the country down).

Population density is measured by taking population and dividing by the area in question (in this case hectares, or 10,000 sq metres, equivalent to a square 100 metres by 100 metres).

My colour code goes from very light green (zero people per hectare) to dark red (320 people per hectare). For reference Greater London (32 boroughs) is around 50 people per hectare, Kensington and Chelsea is 140 and Westminster 118. However, depending on the mix between residential, commercial, industrial and open space will interact to affect population density, so you can have low population density but very little greenspace, which makes simple comparison difficult.

In my map you can see there's a big variation in density, with the area around Shadwell station packing in 304 people per hectare and the Glamis / Cable Street area achieving 288, compared to parts of Wapping with only 38.7 (albeit with a marina in the middle).

Now, a word of caution; the LSOAs are broadly drawn to capture 1,000 people (see below for details), so density of different LSOAs may vary drastically, whereas, if larger blocks of a standard area were used, density wouldn't fluctuate as much, so we need to avoid reaching tautological conclusions. However, the data does let us see were residential populations are built up. One flaw with my data is that it excludes any increase in population arising from 21 Wapping Lane. However, I think that in someways that it's appropriate not to include such a significant development, as if a series of such developments were built, as here we're looking at relative population density in a mature settled community. To include such a large development in the analysis might lead to perverse conclusions when we don't know yet what the overall drain on the community's amenities will be.

Density of parts of LBTH

Apologies for the tables - at some point I will be motivated to write them in HTML rather than copying and pasting from my workings in Excel.

What we can tell from my dataset (see below) is that density in LBTH as a whole is quite a bit higher than for Wapping. However, looking at the 4 LSOAs which overlap or are directly touching the News International site (I label them 'NI Cluster' and are LSOAs TH 026A-D) shows that the existing population density is not much lower than LBTH as a whole, but relatively higher than Wapping, because of the presence of the St George's estate. I've also calculated densities excluding the area of the NI site to see if that affects the population density for the rest of the area - the answer is not massively.

Now, a big caveat here - Wapping has a lot of water - whether or not it should be excluded is a diffcult question. Clearly, you can't build on it, so renders comparing urban population density difficult, but does lead to a feeling of openess.

	LBTH	NI Cluster	LBTH less Wapping & NI cluster	Wapping& NI	Wapping
Area	2,157	58	1,980	176	168
Population	234,765	5,981	221,607	13,158	11,716
Density	109	103	112	75	70
Excluding NI site
Area	2,151	52	1,974	170	162
Density	109	115	112	77	72

 

Populating the NI site

So, realistically, how many residents should be housed on the NI site. Whats in Wapping stated it was 15.16 acres when St George plc acquired the site - which is 6.135 hectares. Assuming that the developers wish to have a mixed use development, rather than make it purely a housing estate with no additional facillities, we get the following figures:

Number of residents based on maintaining existing densities to area of site
	LBTH	NI Cluster	LBTH less Wapping & NI cluster	Wapping+NI	Wapping
Including NI site in existing density calc	668	633	686	458	428
Excluding NI site in existing density calc	670	708	689	475	444

Now if this gives a baseline increase in population, the question arises of how many units of housing. Clearly the answer depends on how many people live in each one. My preference would be for a larger number of 3 bed properties, of which I have a feeling from my initial research that there are a lack of in the area, catering for famillies rather than transient young professionals. I'll need to have a look into if there's any info on profitability of different sized housing units to see what motivates developers.

I've also calculated the extra number of residents that the site would need to accommodate to bring the overall density of Wapping upto the rest of LBTH, but I need to format these tables first.

About output areas

MSOAs are made up of LSOAs and LSOAs are made up of OAs - you at the back, keep up and pay attention.

MSOAs, LSOAs and OAs are defined by the Office of National Statistics and broadly come together to match Boroughs and Wards, but not necessarily(!). As a handy hint, OAs contain a minimum of 100 people, LSOAs 1000 and MSOAs 5,000 with the average size of each about 50% higher than the minimum. See the ONS website for more details.

Data source

http://data.london.gov.uk/datafiles/demographics/lsoa-data-2012.xls

 

Posted with Blogsy

Pressed creases and creased press night

Two reviews in brief

Last week our iron, the jazzy Breville Digital Colour Select (which lights up the water reservoir a different colour depending on the temperature chosen) decided to break. By break I mean that its thermostat failed to stop it continuing to heat up, even though it was sufficiently hot to cause the ironing board to smolder on contact. In fairness after a while the digital panel started flashing, in a way that suggested something was wrong, although still failed to shut the iron off. We had originally bought the iron because it had an auto-off feature (which was relatively rare at the time), which is somewhat ironic given that it failed to do that as it was left to heat up whilst I had a shave.

Our search for a replacement was based on identifying those with an auto shut-off feature, though we discovered that unlike pro-ceramic glide plates, this isn't a widely advertised feature on either the shelf ticket or the box itself, requiring the googling of multiple irons in Currys. To cut an incredibly dull introduction to a blog post short, its replacement the relatively expensive Philips Azur 4890/02 is a very good iron, with the extra power (2.6kw vs 2kw for a lot of irons) is noticeable, as it seems able to maintain temperature for the duration of ironing, which our previous iron struggled with. The real test will come with some cotton bedding, but for now, not skimping on an iron was a very good purchasing decision.

My experience with the iron contrasts with last night's theatre going, to see Bully Boy at the newly opened St James Theatre, spitting distance from the wall of Buckingham Palace. The writing was a bit laboured to try and make a political point about the horrors of war both during and after, the acting was a bit better but let down by the script, that basically cycled which of the two actors would shout/talk/breakdown in each scene. The biggest disappointment for me was the theatre itself. The theatre is purpose built and thus isn't constrained by an existing space and has a decent size bar and a restaurant (which isn't open yet, but doesn't say so anywhere at the theatre, including on the menu outside).

Photo stolen for illustrative purposes
from the St James Theatre website

The auditorium is below ground and has a steep rake, making for excellent sightlines and felt like Trafalgar Studio 1. However, it was disappointing for me, as rather than having poor legroom, it had poor footroom! The gentle rake of most theatres means that as on planes and trains you can put your feet under the chair in front, even if your knees are banging the back of it. In the St James Theatre, the steep rake means that your feet are touching the back of the seat in front. As a result if you're over 5'8" and have size 9 or greater feet (or some function of the two), you might feel squashed, not a triumph of design. This may seem trivial, but I once spent a week hobbling from having to bend my toes sat in the Dress Circle slips at the Coliseum - telling colleagues you have a theatre induced injury is difficult to do and retain your professional air.

Mapping London's Surnames

Anyone interested in maps and London could do far worse than visit Mapping London, a fascinating website created by people with far more technical skills than I could hope for. One really interesting map that shows the diversity of London very well is a map of London by most common surnames. Browsing the map you can see how the residents of different areas have strinkingly different heritages - the map includes colour coding to show the origin of that surname.

When I moved to the East End I was amazed by how many 'Begum's there are, and clearly it is a very common surname, but it strikes me how rigidly its occurence sticks to borough boundaries. It would be fascinating to see a dynamic map showing this data over time. Until then I think we'll have to wait and see.

A quick thought on the relationship between Tobacco Dock and 'London Dock'

In my trawl of FOI requests to LBTH I found this letter [tiff, 1mb] from Messila House (who owned Tobacco Dock at the time) to LBTH which indicates that they were positive about the then proposed development by News International.

I understand that Tobacco Docks have been transferred to another related company and that this refers to the previous attempt to develop the NI site, but I think it gives some encouragement.

A couple of relevant extracts:

Firstly the acquisition by St George and the energies they are putting into consulting the community seem to suggest that they are moving forward.

Whether or not St George will come up with something too residential isn't clear, but from what I've heard at the consultations so far seems to be consistent with Mesilla House's sentiments:

Revised scores on the doors - now with added wobble

I've added some random wobble to the location of the data points, that moves the points by upto around 20m, so the points shouldn't be as stacked on top of each other as in the previous iteration of the map. What I have also done is simplify the colour coding, making 0,1, or 2 appear as red, 3 as yellow and 4 or 5 as green; blue remains as any establishment without a rating yet.

As a reminder, the scoring is based on these criteria:
5 = Very Good
4 = Good
3 = Generally Satisfactory
2= Improvement necessary
1= Major improvement necessary
0 = Urgent improvement necessary
I'll have a look into what each criteria means in practice and post an update.

I've noticed that the longitude and latitude data is out for more points than I first thought- there seem to be a cluster of restaurants in St Katharine Docks which now appear to have set up shop on Reardon Street. For those who are interested, a full list of restaurants is included below.

  

List of all establishments in E1W

Adi Best Burgers	Marble Quay	E1W 1UH	Awaiting
Baguette Kitchen	110 Pennington Street	E1W 2BB	4
Banqueting Kitchen	St Katharines Way	E1W 1LD	5
Bean About Town	St Katharines Way	E1W 1TW	3
Best One Supermarket	56-58 Wapping Lane	E1W 2RL	3
Brasserie	St Katharines Way	E1W 1LD	5
Cafe Rouge	St Katharines Docks	E1W 1AN	5
Cafe Rouge	St Katharines Way	E1W 1AN	Awaiting
Cape Bar	Thomas More Square	E1W 1YW	3
Captain Kidd	108 Wapping High Street	E1W 2NE	3
Chango Empanadas	Marble Quay	E1W 1UH	5
Churros London	Marble Quay	E1W 1UH	5
Chuzzlewits	21 Thomas More Street	E1W 1YY	5
Cinnamon Coffee Shop	103 Wapping Lane	E1W 2RW	Awaiting
Coffique Ltd	121 Wapping High Street	E1W 2NX	5
Comptoir Gourmand	Marble Quay	E1W 1UH	4
Cookies & Cream	Marble Quay	E1W 1UH	4
Cote	1 St Katharines Way	E1W 1UY	Awaiting
De La Panza	Marble Quay	E1W 1UH	4
Dominos Pizza	50 The Highway	E1W 2BG	5
Eat and Shoot	566 Cable Street	E1W 3HB	3
EBB	East Smithfield	E1W 1AT	3
Ethoidin Cuisine	Marble Quay	E1W 1UH	4
Fab Bagels	St Katharines Docks	E1W 1AT	1
Fab Thai Cuisine	Marble Quay	E1W 1UH	4
Floras Food & Fibre Doctors	455 The Highway	E1W 3HP	Awaiting
Fresh Foods	87a Wapping Lane	E1W 2RW	4
Galeta	Marble Quay	E1W 1UH	5
Gastronomica	75 Garnet Street	E1W 3QS	4
Global Fusion	Marble Quay	E1W 1UH	4
Gourmet Chorizo	Marble Quay	E1W 1UH	4
Hermitage Primary School Kitchen	15 Vaughan Way	E1W 2PT	5
HMS President (London Division) Kitchen	72 St Katharines Way	E1W 1UF	4
Hussey Butchers	64 Wapping Lane	E1W 2RL	4
Hussey Fruit & Veg	54 Wapping Lane	E1W 2RL	3
Il Bordello Pizzeria & Restaurant	81 Wapping High Street	E1W 2YN	3
Jamboree	566 Cable Street	E1W 3HB	4
Kenny's Cakes		E1W	Awaiting
Kilikya Turkish Deli & Food Hall	East Smithfield	E1W 1AT	4
Kilikya's Turkish Deli	Marble Quay	E1W 1UH	1
Laksha Bay	83-85 Wapping Lane	E1W 2RW	4
Mace Express	403 Cable Street	E1W 3DP	4
Mala Restaurant & Wine Bar	2 Marble Quay	E1W 1UH	3
Mary Sambrook Children's Centre Kitchen	125 The Highway	E1W 2BP	5
Matilda Community Day Nursery Kitchen	St Katharines Way	E1W 1LQ	5
Maven Foods Ltd	Heckford Street	E1W 3HS	4
Mediterranean Paella	Marble Quay	E1W 1UH	5
Mighty Fine Wines	Knighten Street	E1W 1PW	3
Mother's Dumplings Ltd	Marble Quay	E1W 1UH	Awaiting
Nana	St Katharines Dock	E1W	3
News International Staff Restaurant	3 Thomas More Square	E1W 1WY	5
Noodle City	Marble Quay	E1W 1UH	5
P & J Bakers	93 Wapping Lane	E1W 2RW	1
Panka	St Katharines Dock	E1W	4
Pasha Restaurant	75 Wapping High Street	E1W 2YN	3
Ping Pong	St Katharines Way	E1W 1AA	3
Pizza Express	78-80 Wapping Lane	E1W 2RT	5
Pret A Manger	Thomas More Street	E1W 1YN	5
Prospect of Whitby	57 Wapping Wall	E1W 3SH	5
Pumblechook's	27 Thomas More Square	E1W 1YW	3
Regina Foods Ltd	Marble Quay	E1W 1UH	Awaiting
River View Seafood Restaurant	New Crane Place	E1W 3TU	3
Riverside General Store	1a Garnet Street	E1W 3QT	3
Rummanco	Marble Quay	E1W 1UH	4
Secrets	43-45 East Smithfield	E1W 1AP	4
Slow Cooked Duck	Marble Quay	E1W 1UH	4
Smiths by the River	22 Wapping High Street	E1W 1NJ	5
St Peters School Kitchen	Garnet Street	E1W 3QT	4
Starbucks	St Katharines Way	E1W 1LD	5
Starbucks @ The Coronarium	St Katharines Way	E1W 1LD	5
Step by Step Nursery Kitchen	15 Chandler Street	E1W 2QL	3
Strada	St Katharines Way	E1W 1AA	5
Studio Spaces Ltd	110 Pennington Street	E1W 2BB	3
Stunners	566 Cable Street	E1W 3HB	4
Taste of the Algarve	Marble Quay	E1W 1UH	4
Tench Street Community Centre Canteen	Tench Street	E1W 2QD	3
The Bluebird Bakery London	24 Kennet Street	E1W 2JA	Awaiting
The Carvery	St Katharines Way	E1W 1LD	5
The Doghouse	1 St Katharines Way	E1W 1TW	1
The Express by Holiday Inn Bar	477 The Highway	E1W 3HJ	5
The Indian Kitchen	Heckford Street	E1W 3HS	5
The Living Room	St Katharines Way	E1W 1AN	5
The Medieval Banquet	East Smithfield	E1W 1BP	0
The Piazza and Pontoon	St Katharines Way	E1W 1LA	Awaiting
The Pierhead Preparatory School Kitchen	Glamis Road	E1W 3TD	5
The River Lounge	50 St Katharines Way	E1W 1LA	3
The Riverside Cafe Bar	East Smithfield	E1W 1AT	3
The White Swan and Cuckoo	97 Wapping Lane	E1W 2RW	3
Tower Connect	102-106 The Highway	E1W 2BU	5
Town of Ramsgate	62 Wapping High Street	E1W 2PN	5
Tradewinds Yacht Club Kitchen t/a River Lounge	50 St Katharines Way	E1W 1LA	Awaiting
Turk's Head Cafe	1 Green Bank	E1W 2PA	4
Turners Old Star	14 Watts Street	E1W 2QG	4
UK Payments	2 Thomas More Square	E1W 1YN	5
Vacherin Ltd	1 St Katharines Way	E1W 1UY	Awaiting
Waitrose Cafe	41 Thomas More Street	E1W 1YY	4
Waitrose Ltd	41 Thomas More Street	E1W 1YY	5
Waitrose Staff Restaurant	41 Thomas More Street	E1W 1YY	4
Wapping Bangladeshi Association Lunch Club	Tench Street	E1W 9QD	1
Wapping Fish Bar	89 Wapping Lane	E1W 2RW	1
Wapping Food	Wapping Wall	E1W 3ST	4
Wapping Mini Store	8 Garnet Street	E1W 3QT	4
Wapping Play Group Kitchen	Tench Street	E1W 2QD	5
Wapping Sourdough		E1W	5
Wapping Supermarket	172-176 The Highway	E1W 3DD	4
Wapping Wines	101 Wapping Lane	E1W 2RW	3
Wild City Limited	Heckford Street	E1W 3HS	5
Zizzi	East Smithfield	E1W 1AT	5

Notes on the wobble

Wobble was generated in excel by generating a random number broadly sufficient to offset a point by 10-20m to the North or East (using the randbetween function in excel). I combined with another criteria which generates a random number between -1 and 1, to convert some of the wobbles into a southern or western direction. However, as I forgot to make these integers, the average level of wobble will be less.