An ongoing project to scour the internet for old photos of Wapping and surrounding areas.
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How many mince pies?
A Christmas maths and physics challenge! Danger - may contain spreadsheets
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Utility of usury - the cost of pay day loans
There is a fundamental issue in comparing different financial products using what are quite crude metrics. The concept and suggestion of usuary makes personal finance quite an emotive issue.
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Anti-social behaviour at Capital Wharf
Following on from my previous post, I have received a draft response to my query on the evidence used by LBTH to approve the planning application for railings at Capital Wharf. Here I look at the evidence used by the council with respect of Anti Social Behaviour.
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Railings at Capital Wharf - draft response from LBTH
A draft response to my queries on the evidence submitted by the planning officers to support the planning application for railings
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Would a Banglatown by any other name smell so sweet?
Political types get knickers in twist about ward boundaries and names and forget George Lansbury
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Programme Review: Daddy Long Legs - St James Theatre
A series of reviews of theatre programmes
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London Dock Consultation - High Quality images
Key excerpts from the planning consultation for London Docks
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Holiday Photography Focus: Clifford's Tower, York
Clifford's Tower, the former Keep of York Castle, is a a landmark in York, rising above almost all the buildings in the city centre.
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Pure Mischief - Most inappropriately named shop?
One of the highlights of my recent holiday - a slightly confused window display fpr a shop called Pure Mischief
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Pencil to Pixel at Metropolitan Wharf
An interesting exhibition on some of our most familiar typefaces. If you get the change pop in on your way home next week, or during the day if you're in Wapping
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London Dock Proposals (with photos)
A few crafty camera phone snaps of some of the initial designs for the 'London Dock' Development
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The world's first spreadsheet?
Clearing out my autorecover files in MS Excel I came across this file:
Architecture Holiday Photo: Victoria Quarter, Leeds
An absolutely stunning eample of early 20th Century Architecture
Architecture Holiday Photo: York Minster Transept
The choir screen in York Minster must be the highlight of any staycation in York
York Minster Transept, a photo by Paulie-K on Flickr.
York Minster Transept, a photo by Paulie-K on Flickr.
Programme Review: The Horror! The Horror!- Wilton's Music Hall
A series of reviews of theatre programmes
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Programme Review: Scenes from an Execution - National Theatre
A series of reviews of theatre programmes
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A nice cup of Starbucks tax analysis
Periodically tax gets sexy. By sexy, I mean it appears in the news and lots of trendy people issue an opinion.
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The (impermeable) Highway
Looking back when The Highway wasn't the daunting deathtrap it is today.
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Halloween Ukulele
Covers of (Ghost) Riders in the Sky and Bad Moon Rising to get you in the mood (or not) for halloween.
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The Highway 1859
A wonderful neighbourhood, to be sure. You hardly know that you are in London at all as you walk through the streets
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Wapping ticket office revenue
Back in April What's in Wapping broke the news that the ticket desk at Wapping station would only open 7-10 am on weekdays and not at all on weekends.
I am convinced (but have no independent proof!) that using the machines at overground and DLR stations for oyster purchases is notably slower than the machines in underground stations (particularly observable in the responsive of the machine to the user holding the oystercard). Wapping station has one ticket machine and thus any buildup of people wishing to buy tickets can lead to a queue developing.
Having got fed up of queueing to top-up my PAYG credit, I wondered what the effect of closing the ticket office might have on revenue. So what did I do? I got on the internet and fired off an FOI request.
I am convinced (but have no independent proof!) that using the machines at overground and DLR stations for oyster purchases is notably slower than the machines in underground stations (particularly observable in the responsive of the machine to the user holding the oystercard). Wapping station has one ticket machine and thus any buildup of people wishing to buy tickets can lead to a queue developing.
Having got fed up of queueing to top-up my PAYG credit, I wondered what the effect of closing the ticket office might have on revenue. So what did I do? I got on the internet and fired off an FOI request.
Total revenue at Wapping Station 2004-2012
To get a sense of the historic growth of revenue at the station, I've plotted the monthly total revenue figures for Wapping from April 2004 (period 1 financial year 2005) to August 2012 (period 5 financial year 2013). One interesting fact I discovered (ok, that might be overdoing things) is that TfL manages its business over 13 periods, rather than 12 months, so that most periods are 4 weeks/28 days later.
The big gap is the closure of the station when the line was being extended.
Total revenue at Wapping Station 2010-2012
Focussing on the period after the station reopened, revenue each period has shown a steady increase. The change in the ticket office opening hours occured in April 2012 (P1, 2013), and you can see that revenue fell motn on month by about £15k, before starting to recover. I think that the opening hours were re-extended in July (period 4) ahead of the Olympics. Of note is that there was no noticeable leap in revenue in 2013, period 5, during the Olympics.
Revenue from ticket office and ticket machine 2010-2012
I was able to obtain revenue broken down by source from 2010 onwards (it wasn't recorded by source previously). You can see that the impact of the change in opening hours on the pattern of ticket revenue. You can see that the vending machine picked up a lot of the reduction in sales via the ticket office, but that this wasn't sufficient to prevent revenue falling and you can see on the bottom chart that the ticket office's proportion of station revenue fell from c.40 per cent to 20 per cent with a halving of revenue for three months.
Total revenue adjusted for inflation and seasonal fluctuation
Looking at the top graph, it is apparent that there is a significant level of month-on-month variation in revenue at the station, because of this, it makes it difficult to say categorically that the change of the ticket office's opening hours was the driver of the decline, rather than a general annual downward trend in April. To compensate for all of these factors, I have deflated the raw data using an ONS CPI index for transport expenditure (I didn't use the railway price index, as I thought that would be too specific) and then calculated a seasonal factor (essentially the average difference from the mean for a given period using revenue data since 2004). You can see that as a result, my revise figures (the blue line in the graph below) shows much less variation, and there is a clear trend line.
Even with my adjustments, you still get some large month-on-month changes, so the impact of the hours can't be full certain (and I'm definitely not bothering to undertake a large scale multi-variate regression), but I think there is clear evidence that:
- The proportion of tickets purchased from the ticket office halved
- Overall ticket revenues fell by 10/15% (nominal/adjusted) from the previous month
The Daily Telegraph and a Twofer David Bowie
How one paper manages to turn one photograph into two almost identical stories
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Foggy Tower Bridge
The best bit about autumn and winter in London has to be walking down the Thames on a foggy morning and discovering an entire city can disappear.
The clocks might be going back in just under two weeks, and that means dark mornings, but let's celebrate everything about the cold weather - open fires, reading on the sofa, winter ales and hot chocolates. I also hope that my view of St Paul's Shadwell will soon reappear as the leaves fall from the trees.
The clocks might be going back in just under two weeks, and that means dark mornings, but let's celebrate everything about the cold weather - open fires, reading on the sofa, winter ales and hot chocolates. I also hope that my view of St Paul's Shadwell will soon reappear as the leaves fall from the trees.
Wapping Music Videos (1)
Walking on Sunshine - Part one of a series of short posts on the East End in popular culture.
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Polenta
After my volcanic rant about labelling of polenta, I thought it only fair to acknowledge it as a valid side dish.Read more »
Silly Signage; Ludicrous Labels (updated)
Every morning on my way into work I walk past a Patisserie Valerie, which has a board outside.
Last night, making some polenta for dinner, I read the bag (Merchant Gourmet brand) which warned of volcanic explosions. I find such descriptions slightly over the top. Whilst I acknowledge that the polenta can splatter a bit, I didn't instantly fear that I would be trapped in a pyroclastic flow over the induction hob, only for my wife to unearth me only minutes later entombed in a golden crispy crumb.
However, both of these incidents pale in comparison to a trip to my local pub yesterday, when I read their drinks menu. Now, as a warning I am a member of CAMRA and enjoy drinking beer, generally of the top-fermenting varieties, though I do drink lager if something sufficiently interesting is on offer. Needless to say, reading the slightly overblown descriptions of the Eurofizz on offer left my spluttering over my real ale.
The offenders in order are Stella Artois, Budweiser and Corona, three of the blandest beers out there. Interestingly (or ironically), Budweiser, is beechwood 'aged', but only after the beechwood has been boiled with sodium bicarbonate to remove any flavour being imparted into the beer.
*Some people consider this to be overreacting, I consider it to be maintaining standards.
Early Riser - Coffee and croissant £3 if ordered before 11 am.In what bizarre world is ordering a coffee and a croissant before 11am an indication of being an early riser? By 9.30 I've been at work for an hour and at 10.30 I'm thinking about lunch, and I only get out of bed at 7am, so hardly think of myself as an early rise. Maybe there are a lot of people travelling down from Aberdeen who appreciate the recognition of their early start, but the naming of this offer just makes me lose respect for whoever came up with the idea.*
Last night, making some polenta for dinner, I read the bag (Merchant Gourmet brand) which warned of volcanic explosions. I find such descriptions slightly over the top. Whilst I acknowledge that the polenta can splatter a bit, I didn't instantly fear that I would be trapped in a pyroclastic flow over the induction hob, only for my wife to unearth me only minutes later entombed in a golden crispy crumb.
However, both of these incidents pale in comparison to a trip to my local pub yesterday, when I read their drinks menu. Now, as a warning I am a member of CAMRA and enjoy drinking beer, generally of the top-fermenting varieties, though I do drink lager if something sufficiently interesting is on offer. Needless to say, reading the slightly overblown descriptions of the Eurofizz on offer left my spluttering over my real ale.
Exhibit 1: A dense white, honey blond beer. It has a slightly spicy, citric aromatic taste with malty hoppy tones. The main component to the beer is a fruity zesty flavour with a hint of honey and a soft lingering, dry finish.
Exhibit 2: A medium bodied, flavourful and crisp beer with blended layers of premium American and European hop aromas, brewed for the perfect balance of flavour and refreshment and Beechwood aged for balance and character.
Exhibit 3: The unmistakeable colour, the one-of-a-kind taste, the unparalled flavour of relaxation.
The offenders in order are Stella Artois, Budweiser and Corona, three of the blandest beers out there. Interestingly (or ironically), Budweiser, is beechwood 'aged', but only after the beechwood has been boiled with sodium bicarbonate to remove any flavour being imparted into the beer.
*Some people consider this to be overreacting, I consider it to be maintaining standards.
English muffins
This morning in a fit of enthusiasm, I decided to bake some English muffins to have with our breakfast of scrambled eggs and Sainsbury's basics smoked salmon trimmings. There is quite a bit of time for proving the dough but as long as you don't have a lie in, there's plenty of time to make them for a brunch.I sped the proving process up by leaving the dough in the top oven, above above the main oven which was heating up and as a result ended up eating these at 9.30am after starting them just after 8 am (whilst also making a loaf using a different recipe) but are definitely worth trying. This recipe makes 9 muffins (and uses one sachet of yeast). I halved the quantities as there were just the two of us. I ran out of bread flour and used about 25% plain flour and it worked fine.
Unfortunately we wolfed down most of them and I couldn't be bothered taking a pretty photo, so you'll have to do with possibly one of the worst photos I've ever taken.
Ingredients
450g bread flour
1 1/2 tsp salt
350ml warm milk
1 tsp caster sugar
15g fresh yeast or 1 sachet dried fast acting yeast
1 tbsp of melted butter or oil
Flour or semolina for dusting
Directions
- If using fast acting yeast, sift all the dry ingredients together in a bowl, otherwise mix the yeast with half the milk first. Add the remaining ingredients.
- Beat the mixture for 4-5 minutes (I used an electric hand whisk with sturdy beaters - a wooden spoon will do fine). You'll end up with a smooth elastic dough.
- Cover and leave to rise until doubled in size (upto an hour - I waited 30 mins)
- Once the dough has doubled in size, put on a floured board and knock back.
- Roll the dough out so it's 1cm thick. Using a round pastry cutter, cut out your muffins, dust with flour and leave them to rise for 20-30 mins
- Heat a heavy frying pan on a medium heat and pop the muffins in the frying pan - no oil needed, and cook for 7 mins on each side. You can judge if they're done by touching the top - they should be firm with a little give and should keep their shape.
Developments in Wapping
What's in Wapping have an interesting post from the Turks Head Company Charity summarising a discussion held in May (hopefully my latest FOI request to LBTH on section 106 will arrive more promptly!).
The meeting the Turks Head held looks to have come up with some sensible suggestions, some general, and some very specific, and only one strikes me as objectionable (the smooth cycle lane - I am a big fan of the setts in the road and I think any attacks on them should be fought off to maintain the character of the area). I'd be interested to know why they have decided not to proceed with forming a Neighbourhood Planning Forum (presumably they knew at the outset it would be resource intensive) and whether it is because Network Wapping has started their own application.
The coexistence of the two groups shouldn't be a problem, but does suggest that there is always going to be tension and rivallry between different people - when I studied A-Level politics back in the day (not quite the age of Plato, but it increasingly feels like it), we were always told that politics is the art of conflict resolution - I'm not sure if this ironically amusing or ironically heartbreaking.
The meeting the Turks Head held looks to have come up with some sensible suggestions, some general, and some very specific, and only one strikes me as objectionable (the smooth cycle lane - I am a big fan of the setts in the road and I think any attacks on them should be fought off to maintain the character of the area). I'd be interested to know why they have decided not to proceed with forming a Neighbourhood Planning Forum (presumably they knew at the outset it would be resource intensive) and whether it is because Network Wapping has started their own application.
The coexistence of the two groups shouldn't be a problem, but does suggest that there is always going to be tension and rivallry between different people - when I studied A-Level politics back in the day (not quite the age of Plato, but it increasingly feels like it), we were always told that politics is the art of conflict resolution - I'm not sure if this ironically amusing or ironically heartbreaking.
Also going on in Wapping, is the launch of Tobacco Dock as a conference/exhibition centre (new website) which is coicidentally what John Bell of Network Wapping was proposing. Of note is that in the planning application for the hotel north of the site, there was a proposal for a bridge linking the hotel to Tobacco Dock - reminds me of the Hyatt hotel in Birmingham connected to the International Conference Centre and Symphony Hall (recent host of the Conservative Party Conference - I make it clear that my knowledge is from 4 years of audit visits!).
Hopefully this new venture, which offers a variety of rooms of different sizes - some very large, will be a kickstart to the area and add some vim to getting the hotel built. Using it as a conference venue seems sensible - I don't know quite how it's being operated (I think WiW will have some more info online today) but it's a canny use of space, as I imagine costs can be flexed based on demand, unlike a shopping centre (you can't send home all the staff if no one comes in).
The operating company Tobacco Dock Venues Ltd was incorporated in 2012 by three of the founders/Directors of Interact Branding, a marketing/PR company, so it looks like a new direction for them, though whether actual management is being undertaken by someone else I don't know.
Lift failures in Wapping
- After reopening the reliability of the lifts improved.
- In 2012 the reliability of the lifts fell below the level of performance in 2010.
- The number of people getting stuck inthe lift has fallen and remained steady into 2012, but someone still gets trapped in the lift every month.
Wapping Station - Entry and Exit
My FOI request to TfL on Wapping Station has provided a good variety of information that I find quite interesting and informative. I'll be writing a short series of posts on some of the data received.
The chart below was provided to me by TfL in response to a question on entry and exit to and from Wapping Station. Apparently information on paper tickets isn't captured (or at least not as accurately).
My observations on the data:
On the information provided on annual entries and exits (note the big gap due to closure of the station and a change in methodology in 2010), I observe:
This last observation I find particularly interesting and I'd be curious if a similar pattern is evident across the network and whether the same trend is evident. It's impossible to guess what the driver is. The reasons I can think of that would lead to such a trend are either, people having a walk along the river, getting bored and going home, or, that people leave Wapping for work, or going out and then return via bus or taxi in the evening. Perhaps even more interesting would be to know why the gap has shrunk - are the people of Wapping cutting back on black cabs, or is the prospect of a 'Dine in for £10' getting people rushing back home?
The chart below was provided to me by TfL in response to a question on entry and exit to and from Wapping Station. Apparently information on paper tickets isn't captured (or at least not as accurately).
My observations on the data:
- During weekdays, 0830-0900 is the busiest time with about 300 people an hour using the station (assuming the data is in 15 minute blocks) and assuming a train every 4 minutes in each direction, this would equal approximately 10 people getting on or off each train
- At the weekends, the load on the station peaks between 1300 and 2000, with a relatively constant flow of around 160 people per hour
- Weekend use of the station outside of weekday peak times, is actually higher than during the week, suggesting that Wapping in the week isn't seeing much movement.
- People stay out later on Fridays and Saturdays but get home on Sundays to catch Downton Abbey
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| Average volume of Oyster card entry and exit at Wapping Station |
On the information provided on annual entries and exits (note the big gap due to closure of the station and a change in methodology in 2010), I observe:
- Overall use of Wapping Station has increased by 97 per cent from 2003 to 2011.
- There was a 30 per cent leap between 2007 and 2011
- The greatest year-on-year increase was from 2004 to 2005 when there was a 33% increase in usage of the station.
- There has been a trend for more people to leave Wapping (an entry to the station) than for people to return to Wapping and exit the station. The relative difference has fallen by 14.9 percentage points, from 15.4 per cent to 0.5 per cent.
| Annual Entries | Annual Exits | Combined | Variance (entries over exits) | |
| 2003 | 551,886 | 478,033 | 1,029,919 | 15.4% |
| 2004 | 552,975 | 506,672 | 1,059,647 | 9.1% |
| 2005 | 742,751 | 669,032 | 1,411,783 | 11.0% |
| 2006 | 798,348 | 758,330 | 1,556,678 | 5.3% |
| 2007 | 799,315 | 761,536 | 1,560,851 | 5.0% |
| 2011 | 1,019,835 | 1,014,513 | 2,034,348 | 0.5% |
This last observation I find particularly interesting and I'd be curious if a similar pattern is evident across the network and whether the same trend is evident. It's impossible to guess what the driver is. The reasons I can think of that would lead to such a trend are either, people having a walk along the river, getting bored and going home, or, that people leave Wapping for work, or going out and then return via bus or taxi in the evening. Perhaps even more interesting would be to know why the gap has shrunk - are the people of Wapping cutting back on black cabs, or is the prospect of a 'Dine in for £10' getting people rushing back home?
Coming soon...
- Ticket sales
- Lift reliability
Network Wapping September Meeting
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| Panorama from the roof of fortress Wapping |
Dear reader(s?), how could I leave you with such a cliff hanger?
How did the Network Wapping (NW) meeting go?
Did they take over the world as we know it, upturning Magna Carta, the Bill of Rights and Habeas Corpus?
The simple answer- it went quite well in my opinion with no evidence so far of a local illuminati being established.
Fast facts
Representation: 2 out of 5. A good mix of locals but the Asian community very under represented and relatively few men. Overall a good mix of ages. Some native Wapping people, though I don't know what the actual split is within the area to make a judgement.
Quality of discussion: 4 out of 5. A good range of views, led well by John, the meeting ended before the conversation, as the premises had to be vacated.
Progress: 3 out of 5. Views were captured on flip charts to be written up. John and another lady (I think I know who she is but I shan't name to save embarrassment should I get it wrong) were meeting with St George plc to introduce the group on Friday (yesterday) and hopefully share some high level ideas. What hasn't been made clear yet to attendees or the general public is what NW's purpose is. A discussion group is very different to a full neighbourhood planning forum (which I will discuss in a later post) and I think some fundamentals need to be set out, and I've emailed John in this respect.
The detail
I arrived early and with trepidation. The last community meeting I attended was with TfL discussing the Olympic Route Network and which I left early after tiring of the heated discussion/shouting. Wapping is keen to ask a question, and especially until they get the answer they want.
The meeting was reasonably well attended, maybe 20 people at a time with a little rotation through the night. Councillor Denise Jones attended the start (her ward of course extends to the 'bad north' and indeed I believe no longer captures her own home after the boundary crossed the road).
Coming from an accounting background I normally see a lot of very formal presentations, so John's was quite refreshing, based around photos, maps and designs representing concepts of the built environment in Wapping and globally.
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| Bridge linking the print works to the listed rum warehouse |
What struck me was the diversity of views and the balance between increasing local amenities without changing the character of the area. What was clear was that people genuinely had great affection for Wapping, but as an example of the disparate views expressed when the possibility of space being left for a high school it felt like two women exclaimed 'yes' and 'no' almost at the same time.
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| Gate between News International and Tobacco Dock |
A quick summary of people's desires for the site is (I didn't take notes so I could be way off track):
- Open access, not another gated community
- Community facilities: GP surgery, community centre, schools (maybe a small vertical high school)
- Routes through the site, both east-west (Vaughan Way to Pennington St and the canal) and north-south ( The Highway to the canal)
- Not too dominant on the skyline
- Some moderate support for truly sustainable building
- Minimise air pollution during the demolition (cf Leman St)
Posted with BlogsyHow Dense (2)
I've included the second part of my analysis of population density below, but thought it useful to pull together some reflections on the implications for Wapping. My train of thought is thus:
Assuming an average of two people per unit of housing, we're looking a perhaps an extra 3,000 people in Wapping, or an increase of roughly 25 per cent of Wapping's population in 2009, of which perhaps 2,000 will need to be on the NI site.
However, even if we applied the current population density of LBTH (109 people per hectare) to the NI site, that only gives us an increase of 670 residents. So, to bring us to 2,000 new residents on the NI site, it will be necessary to build a cluster of housing nearly three times as dense as the rest of LBTH.
Does any of this actually matter? Well, yes:
Realistically, I don't think that the NI site would be as densely built as 21 Wapping Lane- ultimately a development of that size will need open space, which 21 Wapping Lane can avoid providing to the same extent (it is sat on a canal, by Wapping Woods). If there is going to be any significant commercial/office or leisure space, population density will be decreased. Reading some correspondence between St George's planning consultants and LBTH, I get the impression they'll want a reasonable amount of carparking (they object to LBTH's low number of car parking spaces allowed per unit of housing), whereas 21 Wapping Lane is a largely car free development, which may reduce density further.
I'll keep trawling the web and see if anything else is being hinted at.
The second row of density figures calculate population density by deducting the area of the NI site (6 hectares) from the respective area, to get an idea of the population density when on excludes a large unpopulated area, however, the actual impact isn't that significant.
The next table simple presents the data in the first table in a slightly different way by comparing the population densities of the different areas. For instance, LBTH has a population density of 39 more people per hectare than Wapping. What it does make obvious is that the cluster of LSOAs around the NI site has a relatively high population density compared to Wapping as a whole.
TABLE 3 is probably the most interesting, as it takes the difference in density from TABLE 2 and applies it to the area (number of hectares) of the relevant location per TABLE 1 to consider how many additional residents would need to be present to equalise population densities.
For example, Wapping's density is 39 people per hectare lower than LBTH as a whole (TABLE 2) which when multiplied by Wapping's area (168 hectares - TABLE 1) gives 6,580 extra people, which is quite a lot. Furthermore, if one were to exclude Wapping & the NI cluster from the calculation of LBTH's density (not counting either Wapping's area or population in the figures of LBTH), you can see that you would actually need to house an extra 7,091 residents (Wapping's low density means that it drags LBTH's density down).
I've calculated the same below, but deducting the 6 hectares of the NI site, however, this doesn't make a massive difference.
- LBTH's Core Strategy earmarked Wapping for the provision of 1,470 new units of housing between 2010 and 2020 [LBTH Core Strategy, Appendix, 'Housing investment and delivery programme, p.146]
- 121 Wapping Lane provides c. 400 (I've seen numbers between 382 and 450 quoted), and there have been a handful, such as a gap filling exercise on Penang Street, but nothing else significant.
- 21 Wapping Lane is on a site of 0.8104 ha [21 Wapping Lane planning application]
- The NI site is 7.5 times larger than 21 Wapping Lane, which at the same density would theoretically yield approximately 2900 units.
- 140 Wapping High Street
- Warehouse opposite 140 Wapping High Street
- Two buildings associated with St Patrick's church
- Warehouse/commercial building on Cinnamon Street
- Land opposite the Captain Kidd
- Land by John Orwell
- Two patches of Land on Pennington Street /The Highway (one of which was mooted as a hotel)
Assuming an average of two people per unit of housing, we're looking a perhaps an extra 3,000 people in Wapping, or an increase of roughly 25 per cent of Wapping's population in 2009, of which perhaps 2,000 will need to be on the NI site.
However, even if we applied the current population density of LBTH (109 people per hectare) to the NI site, that only gives us an increase of 670 residents. So, to bring us to 2,000 new residents on the NI site, it will be necessary to build a cluster of housing nearly three times as dense as the rest of LBTH.
| Number of residents based on maintaining existing densities to area of site | |||||
| LBTH | NI Cluster | LBTH less Wapping & NI cluster | Wapping+NI | Wapping | |
| Including NI site in existing density calc | 668 | 633 | 686 | 458 | 428 |
Excluding NI site in existing density calc | 670 | 708 | 689 | 475 | 444 |
Does any of this actually matter? Well, yes:
- LBTH has decided that Wapping needs 1,400 new housing units
- There is a lack of development space in Wapping, therefore 1,000 of the units realistically need to be built on the NI site.
- LBTH approved 21 Wapping Lane.
- If the density of housing on 21 Wapping lane was replicated over the NI site it would possibly yield 2,900 units of housing (bear in mind that 21 Wapping Lane will have some leisure space).
Realistically, I don't think that the NI site would be as densely built as 21 Wapping Lane- ultimately a development of that size will need open space, which 21 Wapping Lane can avoid providing to the same extent (it is sat on a canal, by Wapping Woods). If there is going to be any significant commercial/office or leisure space, population density will be decreased. Reading some correspondence between St George's planning consultants and LBTH, I get the impression they'll want a reasonable amount of carparking (they object to LBTH's low number of car parking spaces allowed per unit of housing), whereas 21 Wapping Lane is a largely car free development, which may reduce density further.
I'll keep trawling the web and see if anything else is being hinted at.
Comparative population densities
First off, a re-cap of my previous post on population density:TABLE 1: Areas, population and density
| LBTH | NI Cluster | LBTH less Wapping & NI cluster | Wapping & NI | Wapping | ||
| Area | 2,157 | 58 | 1,980 | 176 | 168 | |
| Population | 234,765 | 5,981 | 221,607 | 13,158 | 11,716 | |
| Density | 109 | 103 | 112 | 75 | 70 | |
| Excluding NI site | ||||||
| Area | 2,151 | 52 | 1,974 | 170 | 162 | |
| Density | 109 | 115 | 112 | 77 | 72 | |
The second row of density figures calculate population density by deducting the area of the NI site (6 hectares) from the respective area, to get an idea of the population density when on excludes a large unpopulated area, however, the actual impact isn't that significant.
The next table simple presents the data in the first table in a slightly different way by comparing the population densities of the different areas. For instance, LBTH has a population density of 39 more people per hectare than Wapping. What it does make obvious is that the cluster of LSOAs around the NI site has a relatively high population density compared to Wapping as a whole.
TABLE 2: Differences in densities
| Difference in densities (includes NI site area) - people per hectare | ||||||
| LBTH | NI Cluster | LBTH less Wapping & NI cluster | Wapping & NI | Wapping | ||
| Wapping | 39 | 33 | 42 | 5 | 0 | |
| Wapping+NI | 34 | 28 | 37 | 0 | ||
| LBTH less Wapping & NI cluster | -3 | -9 | 0 | |||
| NI Cluster | 6 | 0 | ||||
| LBTH | 0 | |||||
TABLE 3 is probably the most interesting, as it takes the difference in density from TABLE 2 and applies it to the area (number of hectares) of the relevant location per TABLE 1 to consider how many additional residents would need to be present to equalise population densities.
For example, Wapping's density is 39 people per hectare lower than LBTH as a whole (TABLE 2) which when multiplied by Wapping's area (168 hectares - TABLE 1) gives 6,580 extra people, which is quite a lot. Furthermore, if one were to exclude Wapping & the NI cluster from the calculation of LBTH's density (not counting either Wapping's area or population in the figures of LBTH), you can see that you would actually need to house an extra 7,091 residents (Wapping's low density means that it drags LBTH's density down).
TABLE 3: Additional population change necessary to equalise population densities
| Benchmarked area | ||||||
| LBTH | NI Cluster | LBTH less Wapping & NI cluster | Wapping+NI | Wapping | ||
| Area receiving additional residents | Wapping | 6,580 | 5,622 | 7,091 | 834 | 0 |
| Wapping & NI | 6,024 | 5,020 | 6,560 | 0 | ||
| LBTH less Wapping & NI cluster | -6,024 | -17,310 | 0 | |||
| NI Cluster | 330 | 0 | ||||
| LBTH | 0 | |||||
I've calculated the same below, but deducting the 6 hectares of the NI site, however, this doesn't make a massive difference.
TABLE 4: Differences in densities (excludes NI site area)
| Difference in densities (excludes NI site area) - people per hectare | ||||||
| LBTH | NI Cluster | LBTH less Wapping & NI cluster | Wapping & NI | Wapping | ||
| Wapping | 36.82 | 43.02 | 39.90 | 5.02 | 0.00 | |
| Wapping & NI | 31.80 | 38.00 | 34.88 | 0.00 | ||
| LBTH less Wapping & NI cluster | -3.08 | 3.12 | 0.00 | |||
| NI Cluster | -6.20 | 0.00 | ||||
| LBTH | 0.00 | |||||
TABLE 5: Additional population change necessary to equalise population densities (excludes NI Site area)
| Benchmarked area | ||||||
| LBTH | NI Cluster | LBTH less Wapping & NI cluster | Wapping & NI | Wapping | ||
| Area receiving additional residents | Wapping | 5,962 | 6,966 | 6,461 | 812 | 0 |
| Wapping & NI | 5,409 | 6,463 | 5,933 | 0 | ||
| LBTH less Wapping & NI cluster | -6,079 | 6,158 | 0 | |||
| NI Cluster | -321 | 0 | ||||
| LBTH | 0 | |||||
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